I hardly think so.
Nonetheless the business/tech press is all agog over the not-yet-shipping Palm Tre. Some are calling it an iPhone killer, but it strikes me that it is easy to show off a device before it ships and not even let people hold it in their hand.
And I just don’t think it is a good enough platform to beat the iPhone in the areas that count most: (1) developers and (2) easy application distribution. This type of device defines a platform, a new type of computer, and it has to be marketed and function that manner. What developer in his or her right minds is going to put scarce resources into a platform from a company as weak as Palm?
Then there is the Dell Adamo notebook (no info anywhere on Dell’s site) that some believe will take on the MacBook Air. Dell “showed” it at CES, but did so only in the hands of a model from a stage with low lights. Such a remote display either reflects lack of confidence at Dell or that fact that this device is pure vapor. [Disclosure: I am long in Apple.]
UPDATE: Matt Richtel, of the New York Times, agrees that Palm’s success depends on attracting developers.
Palm’s current operating system certainly attracted its share of developers during the company’s glory days. But phone developers have a lot more choices these days. Palm’s future depends on convincing them to write programs for Palm instead of the iPhone, BlackBerry, Microsoft Windows Mobile or Google Android platforms.