For some time now, I have believed that the Blu-ray platform is indeed going nowhere. The battle between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray lasted so long, that the world shifted under the feet of the movie industry. With wide-spread broadband, downloads to mobile devices, invasions of the living room by devices for streaming movies (like Netflix’s technology), growing sales of Apple TV and movies and TV shows on demand, the era physical media storage like CDs and DVDs seems about to come to an end. The end result: Blu-ray is a solution in search of a problem.
Robert X. Cringely has an column up that questions whether Blu-ray has failed. He thinks it effectively has.
Blu-Ray will survive, but will it be just for cinephiles? That depends on how the 1080p download market evolves (which is why Apple has yet to sell a computer with a Blu-Ray disk installed, seeing it as eventual channel conflict with iTunes) or whether a new HD-DVD standard will emerge to compete again with Blu-Ray.
And don’t forget the impact of up-converting progressive-scan DVD players, which even Sony sells: I just bought one for $44.77 at Wal-Mart and driving the 720p display in my RV makes a standard-definition DVD of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory look amazingly good. Not good enough for a cinephile, but that’s five percent of the video market, tops.