There are two schools of thought on the rumored Apple tablet, which may be announced at the end of January. One view is that it will fail, primarily because tablet computers have been offered by many companies over the years and none have developed anything more than a niche market.
My own view is that there is a substantial risk of failure. The only hope for success is that Apple has taken the time to do an in depth analysis of what a tablet can and should do and has designed the interface in a way that creates new functionality not present in other tablets. This is certainly within Apple’s ability as a company.
However, not everything that Apple creates (or has created under the leadership of Steve Jobs) becomes a market success. One example is the Newton Message Pad (released in 1993 when John Sculley was CEO of Apple).
The Newton was an early PDA with handwriting recognition that became a joke. The Newton does have followers to this day, but it was never a major success and was dropped by Apple in 1998.
Other examples include the no longer produced Apple iPod Hi-Fi Speaker System, the Lisa, the 20th Anniversary Macintosh, the Apple Cube, and, at least arguably so far, Apple TV. (Let me make it clear that I own two Apple TVs, and I love the product. Nonetheless, it is currently a product that even Steve Jobs has called a “hobby.”)
Apple has some great strengths to bring to bear on the tablet. They have relationships with large media companies who can be expected to deliver content to the platform. Their iTunes Store gives Apple a direct connection to millions of customers, each of whom has registered credit cards with the company. This network (and the installed iTunes application) is very powerful. Further, Apple has a huge developer network created in connection with the iPhone and that too could provide a huge advantage that other tablet manufacturers simply did not have. Finally, Apple’s customer satisfaction numbers are the highest in the industry and people are likely to give a product from Apple a try based on their prior experience.
Jon Gruber has a great essay on his views of the upcoming tablet arguing that Apple is going to use the table to try to redefine personal computing:
And so in answer to my central question, regarding why buy The Tablet if you already have an iPhone and a MacBook, my best guess is that ultimately, The Tablet is something you’ll buy instead of a MacBook.
I say they’re swinging big — redefining the experience of personal computing.
It will not be pitched as such by Apple. It will be defined by three or four of its built-in primary apps. But long-term, big-picture? It will be to the MacBook what the Macintosh was to the Apple II.
Over all, given Apple’s strengths and its recent performance, I give Apple an 80% chance of success with the tablet.
That is, of course, if they are even developing a tablet.
Update: Here is a concept video from Apple in 1987 showing the never-manufactured “knowledge navigator”. It is tablet-like and while it isn’t likely that Apple will follow this approach, it provides an interesting take on how creative Apple can be.
Disclosure: I have a long position in Apple stock. Nothing on this blog should be construed as investment advice.