Someone has taken a gigantic swig of the Kool-Aid. Mike Elgin, writing in ComputerWorld is predicting that the iPad will be the most important release, culturally and financially, that Apple has ever made. Bigger than the Mac, bigger that the iPod, bigger than the iPhone. He bases this conclusion on a view that the iPad can successfully address many markets simultaneously.
I think the iPad is the most important launch in Apple’s history — bigger than the Mac, iPod or iPhone. More than that, I think it’s the most important cultural phenomenon of this generation. It’s bigger than technology.
I’m no fanboy. I’ve tried to envision some conceivable series of events that might leave the iPad as only moderately successful, but I can’t come up with any. All circumstances, facts and events in technology, media and elsewhere seem to point to the same inexorable outcome: The iPad will be huge.
While I firmly believe that the iPad has a potential to be huge, I am surprised by his certainty of success. The ultimate outcome, in my view, depends almost totally on the ingenuity of developers that can come up with the “killer apps” for the device. I think the software applications, rather than the innate characteristics of the hardware platform are key. The original PC was largely driven not by the hardware but by a single killer app: the spreadsheet.
The iPad hardware and native interface are certainly impressive and provide a strong platform for applications. To use a garden analogy, the soil is rich and ready for planting. And it may well be the best “new” soil in three decades. The iPad presents a better than 50-50 chance that one or more developers are up to the challenge of creating a game changer (or several game changers). But the device itself is more a potentiality than a done deal.
Of course, I haven’t even touched one yet, so what do I know?
In other news, Apple just launched the updated iTunes version 9.1 with iPad support.