Apple’s enterprise value

Many investors are puzzled about Apple’s stock price growth. In effect, Apple’s stock price seems to be greatly lagging its earnings growth.  Horace Dediu, writing on his blog asymco.com, offers a possible explanation that makes sense to me. He believes that the market does not understand how Apple has produce and sold its blockbuster products, iPod, iPhone, iPad, over the past few years. Each of these products seemingly came out of nowhere.

A disruptive company is inherently unpredictable. Success and growth are unrewarded because there no understanding of the underlying causes of these phenomena and therefore there is no expectation of repetition.

The entire article is worth a careful read if you are an Apple investor.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

Apple: number 1 worldwide computer vendor

According to this report from Canalys, Apple is the number one vendor of personal computers in the world. It reaches that conclusion by including tablets as personal computers, which they most certainly are. PCs are PCs based on what they do, not on what they look like.

Canalys today announced that Apple, after reporting stellar results, became the leading worldwide client PC vendor in Q4 2011. Apple shipped over 15 million iPads and five million Macs, representing 17% of the total 120 million client PCs shipped globally in Q4. Overall, the total client PC market, including desktops, netbooks, notebooks, and pads grew 16% year-on-year. Excluding pads, the client PC market declined 0.4%. The floods in Thailand, that impacted hard drive assembly plants, caused mild disruption to shipments during the quarter, but the side effects are likely to be felt in the first half of 2012.

Among the other top five PC vendors, only Lenovo managed to increase its market share, by a relatively modest two points, compared to Apple’s six-point gain over the same quarter a year ago. Acer, Dell and HP – the hardest hit – all lost market share.  Now the second largest client PC vendor worldwide, HP will struggle to compete with Apple following the end of its Touchpad.

Welcome to the post-PC era.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

Two years ago yesterday

Yesterday the second anniversary of the official Apple announcement of the iPad.

English: Apple iPad Event

Image via Wikipedia.

In honor of the event, I thought I would catalog a few of the tech critics’ initial reactions to the device:

Is that it then? A bloody great iPhone? If any newspaper publishers out hoped the iWhatsit would be the missing link between digital investment and reward, the sight of Steve Jobs lazily stroking his big touchscreen while muttering “awesome” and “incredible” and “wonderful” will have come as a blow.

Matt Kelly, digital content director, Mirror Group

I haven’t been this let down since Snooki hooked up with The Situation

Daniel Lyons

…, it’s hard to see how the iPad is really the no-brainer upgrade over everything else in the world the way that the iPhone was when it was announced. Yes, I’d rather own an iPad than, say, either the HP slate or the 10-inch Tegra 2- and Android-based tablet prototype that MSI showed at CES. But, at least in the case of the MSI tablet, I’d have to do a little more homework first before making a final decision.

It’s certainly true that with many of the items above, Apple’s implementation will be superior to the competition, and in some cases dramatically so. But there are also places where Apple’s iPad will be inferior, so the end result is that buyers will end up making a tradeoff based on the same kind of “what matters to me” feature grid that I’ve given above. I honestly wasn’t expecting to have to do that.

Jon Stokes, Deputy Editor, Ars Technica

I have a rather controversial opinion about the iPad itself. Simply put: I think it is the wrong device, at the wrong price, in the right space. At the end of the day, based on early reports I’ve seen/heard (which is limited, I must admit), the device is a big iTouch and a Kindle, all in one. But hold on a second! I already have an iTouch (it happens to be an iPhone), and I can buy a phenomenal eReader from Amazon (and soon, many others) for less than $300. And you still need a phone. So why would I pay $500+ for a device that is primarily different from my phone in that it’s an eReader?

The iPad looks to be a cool personal device that Apple is targeting at a very interesting space: the home. But the home doesn’t need another personal device. The home needs a device for the WHOLE FAMILY to use. The iPad as Apple appears to have positioned it, is not the right device for the whole family to use. It isn’t the device that I think will float around the home, being used by everyone. The home needs a family device that everyone can use. That device is not a big iTouch. It’s something else.

Apple took what I think was the easy road here, and I am betting their results will show it. They took their existing iPhone experience and dropped it on top of what appears to be just a big iTouch. And they built a new eReader application with a new eBook ecosystem. The are reacting to the Kindle phenomenon. But I don’t see this device as revolutionizing how people consume digital applications and content in the home.

Robbie Cape, CEO and founder, Cozi, Seattle

It’s a big iPod. That much is clear — it’s not really a tablet computer. Of course, the benefits of a giant iPod are manifest: you can check email easily, movies and shows will look nice (though not full HD), and the e-books looked great. But the fact is you’re limited by Apple in every way they can limit you. It’s got all the same fetters as an iPhone and has no expandable storage or USB port. Until you hack it to run Chrome OS, you’re going to be using this thing exactly the way Apple tells you to. It’ll be nice if that’s what you want, but it’s not the universal tablet I was hoping for. Nevertheless, I see every secretary and PA carrying one of these in a month.

Devin Coldeway, TechCruch

Apple CEO Steve Jobs trotted out on stage in San Francisco today, promising ‘a truly magical and revolutionary’ new product. He didn’t deliver. The Apple iPad, unveiled today, met base-level expectations — it’s a big iPhone. And to Apple’s credit, it’s cheaper than we thought, which will drive adoption. But Steve didn’t show off any must-have features or applications. And after seeing the iPad, we’re not nearly as impressed as we were after Jobs unveiled the iPhone three years ago.

Dan Frommer, Silicon Alley Insider

A lot of people are psyched about the iPad. Not me! My god, am I underwhelmed by it. It has some absolutely backbreaking failures that will make buying one the last thing I would want to do.

Adam Frucci, Gizmodo

On the other hand, nothing succeeds like success. Apple sold more than 14.7 million iPads in 2011.

Apple’s performance

If ever there was a company operating at the edge of perfection it would be called Apple, based on its Q1 2012 performance reported by the company yesterday. To put the quarter in perspective, consider the following:

  • Apple’s sales for the quarter were 73% higher year-over-year, and profit more than doubled from $6.43 per share in the year ago quarter to $13.87 in the quarter just ended.
  • Apple’s profit for the quarter ($13.1 Billion) is higher than Google’s most recent quarterly revenue ($10.5 Billion).
  • Apple’s profit for the quarter was three times the profit earned by General Electric in the quarter ($4.1 Billion).
  • Apple’s cash and bond balances now total $97.6 Billion (of which $38 Billion was added in 2011). This amount is more than the market caps of all but 52 publicly traded corporations.  The cash/bond  hoard is worth $103 per Apple share.
  • Apple’s gross margin rose to 44.7% from 38.5% in the year ago quarter.
  • Apple’s quarterly performance was the fourth highest of any corporation ever. The other big quarters were primarily oil companies reporting during quarters of high oil costs.

The core of Apple’s stunning performance was the huge, blow-out sale numbers for the iPhone. This despite the fact that many tech “pundits” called the iPhone 4S a major disappointment.  The market results certainly belie that characterization.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

A history of computing platforms

Take a look at this video from Horace Deidu. It shows the number of units of various platforms shipped over time. It clearly shows the disruption caused by Apple and in particular its iOS devices.

The video is accompanied by a detailed article with charts that you can view here.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

Tech quote of the day

It turned out that the gorillas didn’t really enjoy the iPad – “they are more stoic,” said Rafert – but the orangutans went wild.

Reactions among primates offered the use of iPads at the Milwaukee County Zoo.

Gyroscope demo

Precession of a gyroscope

Apple has released an interactive 360-degree image of its new Grand Central Apple Store.  The image is designed to work with the gyroscope in iOS devices (iPhone/iPad) and is a pretty amazing demonstration of how the gyroscope can be used.

To view it, on your iOS device, go to this page. Then click on the link to “View More Photos” and then click on the thumbnail with the 360 degree tag. Move your device around to pan and scan the entire image.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend

Business competition can generate strange bedfellows and here is a good example. According to an article in The Daily, Microsoft is busy working on bringing Microsoft Office to the iPad (and a new version of Office for the Mac). Given that Microsoft is planning to launch a touch-based tablet operating system as a major part of Windows 8 sometime in 2012, why would they want to help Apple sell more iPads now?

The reason seems clear: to better compete with Google by weakening the attraction of the Android platform, while simultaneously using the huge number of iPad users to mount an assault of Google Docs, which is a direct competitor to Office.  Further, Microsoft Office is a huge seller on the Mac and therefore is actually a major generator of revenues for Microsoft. Finally, establishing an Office beachhead on the iPad is way for Microsoft to hedge the risk that their own tablet efforts fail to generate significant earnings.

Interesting times.

Kindle Fire reviews

The reviews of Amazon’s new Kindle Fire tablet/media device are starting to come in. Here is a sampling.

Engadget:

When stacked up against other popular tablets, the Fire can’t compete. Its performance is a occasionally sluggish, its interface often clunky, its storage too slight, its functionality a bit restricted and its 7-inch screen too limiting if you were hoping to convert all your paper magazine subscriptions into the digital ones. Other, bigger tablets do it better — usually at two or three times the cost.

So, the Kindle Fire is great value and perhaps the best, tightest integration of digital content acquisition into a mobile device that we’ve yet seen. Instead of having a standalone shopping app the entire tablet is a store — a 7-inch window sold at a cut-rate price through which users can look onto a sea of premium content. It isn’t a perfect experience, but if nothing else it’s a promising look into the future of retail commerce.

Jon Phillips, Wired:

By the time iPad 3 comes out, Apple’s cheapest iPad 2 will almost certainly be even cheaper. And this could very well be the tablet for you: 9.7 inches of uncompromised screen real estate, a processor that rips through web pages like a chainsaw, and an app and digital content ecosystem that’s already commensurate to (if not better than; let’s be serious) anything Amazon offers.

iPad killer? No, the Kindle Fire is not. And it doesn’t even match the iPad in web browsing, the one area in which its hardware should have sufficient performance to compete. But the press has definitely supercharged Amazon’s product launch with a level of hype and enthusiasm that would make Apple proud.

WIRED A great platform for casual video playback. A perfectly fine Android 2.3 app device. A price that pleads “buy me,” repeatedly, until you crack a big grin, and give in like a good-natured father buying trinkets for the kids at Wal-Mart.

TIRED Small screen size and insufficient processing power. Crap browser performance. Near useless as a magazine reader, and roundly trumped by superb e-ink Kindles as a book reader.

David Pogue:

Most problematic, though, the Fire does not have anything like the polish or speed of an iPad. You feel that $200 price tag with every swipe of your finger. Animations are sluggish and jerky — even the page turns that you’d think would be the pride of the Kindle team. Taps sometimes don’t register. There are no progress or “wait” indicators, so you frequently don’t know if the machine has even registered your touch commands. The momentum of the animations hasn’t been calculated right, so the whole thing feels ornery.

Magazines are supposed to be among the best new features. Most offer two views. There is Page View, which shows the original magazine layout — but shrunken down too small to read, and zooming is limited. Then there is Text View: simple text on a white background. It’s great for reading, but of course now you’re missing the design and layout, which is half the joy of reading a magazine. And Text View sometimes loses words, cartoon captions and so on. …

The built-in Web browser is supposed to accelerate delivery of Web pages by handing off some of the processing tasks to Amazon’s own online computers. Furthermore, when you are on, say, the New York Times home page, Amazon tries to guess what link you will tap next, based on its popularity. It prefeeds your Kindle pieces of the page that would then appear, to save even more time.

In practice, it’s not clear what all of that gains you: nytimes.com takes 10 seconds to load, eBay.com takes 17 seconds, Amazon.com takes 8 seconds. The iPad took about half as long each time. On the other hand, the Fire can play Flash videos (if a little jerkily), which the iPad can’t….

The Fire deserves to be a disruptive, gigantic force — it’s a cross between a Kindle and an iPad, a more compact Internet and video viewer at a great price. But at the moment, it needs a lot more polish; if you’re used to an iPad or “real” Android tablet, its software gremlins will drive you nuts.

 Lance Ulanoff (Mashable):

This is a product I wanted to love. The Kindle Fire’s unveiling was so impressive. Jeff Bezos hitting all the right notes in true Jobsian fashion, telling the tale of a product vision so clear it made my eyes tear up. Instead, now I’m discovering it’s a somewhat flawed gadget — a product that literally does not always know which way is up.

Donald Bell (Cnet):

Amazon’s triumph isn’t just about making cheap hardware. The Kindle Fire is a product that stands on Amazon’s years of hard work building out its e-book and digital media offerings, its app store, and its Cloud storage and processing technologies. But as much as I like this tablet, the Kindle Fire isn’t getting our best rating or an Editors’ Choice. There’s no doubt that I would choose an iPad 2 over a Kindle Fire in a heartbeat. In fact, I’d take an original iPad over a Kindle Fire.

Andy Ihnatko (Chicago Sun Times):

The Fire is a marvelous device. And Apple and Amazon couldn’t have created a more complementary pair of tablets if they’d colluded on it. Want a tablet that does everything, and which does books exceptionally well? Buy an iPad. Want something more compact, and you’re not terribly interested in much more than content consumption? The Fire is aces. I feel as if every potential tablet consumer will recognize themselves in one of those two descriptions.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

Bloomberg’s new app

Bloomberg has just released a new app that looks like gold for folks interested in business news.  It is a free iPad app called Bloomberg TV+.  It provides live streaming of Bloomberg TV to the iPad, and fully supports AirPlay so users can easily display the stream on their TVs via Apple TV. Terrific.

Tech quote of the day (updated)

We thought from the beginning that it would be a huge market, and it’s even bigger than we thought. We think it’ll be even bigger than the PC market — that’s just what I think it can be. It’s a huge opportunity for Apple across time.

Tim Cook, Apple CEO, from yesterday’s earning call, describing Apple’s view of the ultimate size of the tablet market. 

Update: Dan Frommer runs some numbers and concludes that Cook is probably right.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

Apple posts strong results (updated)

Apple has released its results for the quarter ended September 30, 2011. The results, year-over-year, were very strong and they easily beat Apple’s prior guidance on the quarter. In fiscal 2011 (which ended on September 30), Apple earned $27.68 per share, compared to $15.15 in the prior 2010 fiscal year, a huge improvement. Excellent summary of the results and q/a during the earnings call from MacRumours here.

However, the overall results were below market consensus and the stock fell about 7% in after hours trading. Apple said that this was primarily due to customers during the later part of the summer holding off buying iPhones in anticipation of the fall launch of the new iPhone 4S.

Apple guided higher for the current quarter than current analysts’ predictions and Apple generally is conservative in guidance.

Update: Here is a succinct summary of the results from the New York Times:

Apple said its net profit for the quarter was $6.62 billion, or $7.05 a share, up from $4.31 billion a year ago, or $4.64 a share, a 54 percent increase. Revenue rose to $28.27 billion from $20.34 billion, a 39 percent increase. Those results were well ahead of the $5.50 a share in earnings and $25 billion in revenue that Apple had forecast for the fourth-quarter.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

iCloud and Apple IDs

Configuring and using iCloud can be tricky for some, especially if you are in a multi-Apple ID household or have used one MobileMe or DotMac account for syncing and a separate account for iTunes store purchases. The best summary of your options that I have found is this article from Macworld. It is a great reference for handling a multitude of scenarios.